恩格斯对《资本论》方法的贡献——纪念恩格斯诞辰200周年

恩格斯对待《资本论》的态度是将其看做科学作品和历史作品的统一，坚持由“科学品性”提升“历史品格”——这就是对唯物主义路径的着重阐发；恩格斯进而希望通过自己的扎实辛勤工作，全方位展示他和马克思共同的理论思维——辩证法，用以“伟大逻辑”的建构。要之，恩格斯的工作和《资本论》方法关联的线索有三：一是以《自然辩证法》研究和《资本论》商品章“工作呼应”，希图在马克思主义理论中彻底肃清“蒲鲁东主义”；二是坚持《资本论》的由“自然过程”向“历史过程”进军，对其总体方法论和理论逻辑主张——自然历史过程——进行学理性阐发，又主要归结于发生学的工作逻辑；三是恩格斯晚年的历史唯物主义思考，以耄耋之年推动“《资本论》增补”工作，进行巨大的认识推进。换言之，从广义的工作角度看，恩格斯是尝试把《资本论》当作马克思自身要完成而未能完成的“《辩证法》”（即唯物辩证法）的一个全面预演。经由恩格斯的唯物史观化的“辩证法”努力，《资本论》逐渐成为指导科学思考和进行意识形态战斗的武器，这为《资本论》“俄国化”和“中国化”打下了牢靠的基础。     

浅谈铁路建设项目资格预审申请文件、商务标编写方法及建议

2014年以来,铁路固定资产投资每年基本稳定在8000亿元左右,对施工企业而言,要抓住当前的有利机会,争取更多的施工任务。结合当前铁路建设项目资格预审及招标的特点,简要介绍资格预审申请文件、商务标的编写方法,提出相关建议,以期为从业人员提供借鉴。     

Time-varying inter-urban housing price spillovers in China: Causes and consequences

The spatial spillovers of housing prices across regions are well documented by a large body of previous studies. This paper tries to investigate the dynamic (time-varying) evolution of spatial interactions and their underlying driving factors intensively. Using a recently developed Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model, this paper examines the time-varying spatial spillovers of housing prices in 70 major and median cities of China from 2006 to 2019. We find that the GAS model can well capture the impact of time-varying critical events of Chinese real estate market on the whole. However, different regions display heterogeneous variation patterns over time. Further investigation shows that inter-regional labor mobility and trades are two major channels, accounting for 1.25% and 2.58% of the monthly standard deviations of spatial spillover effects from one city to another, respectively. We also characterize and distinguish between three time-varying patterns of spatial spillovers within different regions of China. Our results shed lights on the understanding of spatial spillovers across regional real estate markets across different city network structures within China.     

基于ANP-PP-SPA的区域洪灾风险评价模型研究

针对现有洪灾风险评价模型的缺陷与不足,从致灾因子、孕灾因子、承灾因子和减灾因子4个方面,通过对14项评价指标的分析与计算,构建洪灾风险评价体系。洪灾风险评价体系以网络层次分析法(ANP)求解主观权重,投影寻踪法(PP)求解客观权重,主客观综合权重与集对分析理论(SPA)耦合,构建基于ANP-PP-SPA的洪灾风险评价模型。以广东省英德市为例,验证洪灾风险评价模型的适用性。计算结果表明,英德市2016年的洪灾风险属于中等级别,符合英德市2016年的实际情况。洪灾风险评价模型不仅综合考虑了评价指标间的相互关系,还较好地体现了洪灾风险的模糊性和随机性,能够为区域洪灾风险决策和洪水管理提供科学依据。     

Using a Delphi approach to identify the most efficacious interventions to improve Indonesia’s forest and land governance

Improvements to forest and land governance are key to addressing deforestation and degradation of peatlands in Indonesia. While this is a priority area, the steps to achieving good forest and land governance have been under-researched. There is a need for better links between theoretically informed academic analysis and work in the field. This study drew together a panel of experts on forest and land governance using a Delphi method to discuss the underlying drivers of deforestation and peatland degradation, and correspondingly, to identify interventions to improve land and forest governance in Indonesia. Seventeen panelists with an average of more than 12 years’ experience reached agreement over four governance interventions: increasing the capacity of local communities to manage and monitor forests and natural resources (65% of panelist’s votes); identify strengths and weaknesses of community organisations and institutions, and develop strategies to improve their performance (65% of panelist’s votes); gazetting forests to clarify land boundaries and determine which areas should be village, community and state forest zone (59% of panelist’s votes); and, integrating participatory community maps into spatial plans to protect local communities and indigenous peoples’ development needs (53% of panelist’s votes). They also supported action research involving the government, private sector and communities, and political economy approaches to researching forest and land governance issues. Panelists indicated that community level approaches such as securing community forest tenure through clarifying land claims and integrating local land tenure into spatial planning had an important role in sustainable forest management.     

黑龙江森工林区林业产业结构演变趋势及优势产业选择

采用灰色预测方法对黑龙江森工林区2018—2027年林业三次产业产值进行预测,并在此基础上利用动态偏离-份额分析方法对此阶段黑龙江森工林区的林业优势产业进行选择。结果表明:2019年黑龙江森工林区林业产业结构将演变为"三、一、二"模式;林业第一产业中的林木育种和育苗、经济林产品的种植和采集业可作为优势产业进行重点发展和管理。因此,提出优化黑龙江森工林区林业产业结构的相关建议:继续巩固发展林木育种和育苗、经济林产品的种植和采集这两个优势产业;推动加工制造业向深加工、精加工的方向转变;加强林业旅游与休闲服务业的竞争力。     

基于不同城市化发展阶段的山西省城镇建设用地适度集约利用研究

研究目的:针对城市化进程中的土地低效利用以及过度集约问题,探讨不同城市化发展阶段的土地集约利用状况及适度集约利用状态。研究方法:采用匹配度模型、曲线估计模型和多目标规划模型,对山西省的土地集约利用进行分区优化。研究结果:(1)1999—2012年山西省土地集约利用与城市化水平之间的匹配趋势逐渐由失调、磨合向协调转变,但不同地区之间的匹配水平差距却在逐渐扩大;(2)2018年山西省城市化水平处于低于30%、30%～70%和高于70%时,以单位城镇建设用地固定资产投资额为表征的土地适度集约利用值分别为249.93万元/km~2、367.57万元/km~2和692.72万元/km~2,两项指标叠加全省可划分为平稳发展区、重点挖潜区和优化拓展区,并提出了不同地区差别化的建设用地管控政策。研究结论:不同城市化发展阶段的土地适度集约利用研究能为制定区域差别化政策提供参考,以促进该地区的土地集约利用水平达到适度状态。     

设立国家级贫困县能提升当地农民收入水平吗——基于2007~2016年中国296个县面板数据的实证研究

中国自1986年实施贫困县制度以来，国家级贫困县的设立是否能够以及在多大程度上提升了当地农民实际收入水平，需要进行系统科学的实证检验。基于双重差分倾向得分匹配法（PSM-DID），利用2007~2016年全国6个省份296个县的面板数据进行实证研究发现，国家级贫困县的设立非但没能有效提升当地农民实际收入水平，反而对其有持续的负效应。进一步研究发现，贫困地区第二、三产业的发展能够有效提高当地农民实际收入水平，然而贫困县政策并未促进当地产业结构的优化；政府通过正向干预农产品价格能有效增加农民实际收入。从研究结论的政策含义讲，立足贫困户推进精准扶贫、通过招商引资带动有效投资，以及优化县域产业结构，对于提升贫困县的农民收入具有重要现实意义。     

重要生态用地级别评价和划定方法研究——以水源涵养为例

文章以水源涵养为例,基于水平衡评价计算方法,选择水资源禀赋类型不同的县域单元开展水源涵养型生态用地功能分级划定研究。总结现有生态保护红线划定技术方法及存在不足,致力于显化不同地区水源涵养生态用地功能绝对值差异,利用评价单元格水源涵养累计贡献值面积弹性拐点,对重要水源涵养用地级别划定方法进行改进。对河北省易县和四川省金川县的实例验证表明,此评价方法可以根据不同地区水源涵养功能特点量身确定重要生态空间规模、面积和比例。     

Does managerial ability matter for cross-border M&As: Evidence from Chinese listed firms

With the deepening of economic globalization, cross-border mergers and acquisitions (CBMAs) are increasingly becoming an important choice of transnational investment, and more Chinese firms are becoming involved in them. However, the success rate of CBMAs for firms in China seems to be lower than that for firms in other countries. Using data on the CBMA deals initiated by Chinese A-share listed enterprises from 2003 to 2018, we examine the association between managerial ability and the likelihood of completing CBMAs. The empirical results show that the average impact of managerial ability on the likelihood of completing CBMAs is positive. Furthermore, by taking heterogeneity of the ownership structure into account, we find that the positive effect of managerial ability is significant only for non-state-owned enterprises. Moreover, the results from the mediation model show that relaxing financing constraints is a possible channel by which managerial ability affects the likelihood of completing CBMAs. Our results are robust to various model specifications.